Benefits
Horseracing
25. A number of benefits to horseracing are identified in the Study. However these are not valued and it is not clear which of the claimed benefits accrue to Musselburgh Racecourse, racing nationally or other associated industries e.g. betting. The assumptions and implications behind the way in which these benefits can be assured are not explained and may have some wider impacts on the area e.g. “Partnership opportunities with hotel groups/casinos…to develop first racecourse casino”, “requirement to redevelop and establish spectator and leisure facilities commensurate with (a) the quality of racing and (b) the location of the race course”. The manner in which these developments are linked in the Study suggests that an AWT may not be viable without further substantial investment in other leisure industries.
The local community
26. Without defining what is meant by the “local community”, the Study estimates the current benefits amount to between £3.0m to £3.3m per year excluding spending on the racecourse. This is based on a suggestion that all 60,000 day visitors spend between £20 and £25 each and that the additional 10,500 to 12,000 race goers the study estimates stay in the area overnight each spend £150. This spending is said to occur over 25 race days per year.
27. To a resident of Musselburgh, the suggestion that the town benefits from between £120,000 and £132,000 each day there is a race meeting flies in the face of commonsense, anecdotal evidence and observation. Race goers come to Musselburgh by car and public transport. Most arrive directly before the meeting starts and leave when it finishes. If the figures in the study are to be believed and 60,000 additional people per year are shopping in the town, there would be queues at High Street shops before and after races. Trade in bars, restaurants and take-aways may increase but given that one bar in the High Street has closed it is unlikely that the £1.2m-£1.5 claimed by the study is actually flowing through the town.
28. A realistic but still generous estimate may be that 10% of race goers spend in the town. Using the same average spend, this would give figures benefits of £120,000 - £150,000 per year. A more realistic estimate of 5% would give figures of £60,000 - £75,000. Again, it is likely that most of this will be spent in bars and restaurants etc rather than a range of local shops.
29. Similarly, the suggested £1.8m for spending by overnight tourist appears grossly overestimated. This sum is based on an estimate of 10,500 to 12,00 additional bednights per year required by 7,000 race goers who are said stay for at least one night and spend £150 per night. This is in addition to accommodation used by jockeys, trainers etc. It is not clear whether these additional bednights are available in Musselburgh.
30. Once more, observation suggests that most accommodation is taken up by trainers, jockeys, stable staff etc. Again, using an estimate of 10% for those who choose to find accommodation in Musselburgh rather than Edinburgh or elsewhere produces a figure of £180,000 per year. If this falls to 5% then the figure is £90,000.
31. Taken together these figures suggest that a more realistic figure for benefits lies between £150,000 and £330,000, or between £6,000 and £13,200 per race day. These figures may appear low, but this spending is spread over only a small range of establishments in the town.
32. The claim that an AWT would bring a further £1.15m to £2.35m giving a range of £4.3m to £5.8 for total benefits has to be treated with caution. The calculation uses the same spending figures and estimates that visitors to evening meeting would spend up to £0.55m. The value of overnight stays is put at between £0.6m to £1.2m. However, evening meetings will take place after most shops are closed and part of the overnight spend is dependant on the development of “tourist packages” with no guarantee that people will chose to stay in Musselburgh rather than Edinburgh or elsewhere.
33. However, the achievement of these benefits is additionally uncertain because of the limited demand for AWTs and would require improved “provision locally of hotels, bars restaurants and other facilities” and “ provision for the golf course and the proposed sporting development”. This suggests that it is implicit in the proposal that the golf course has to be changed and the proposed sporting development in place (both presumably to attract more visitors) before the benefits attributed to the AWT can be realised.
34. With these uncertainties and questions over the attendance levels for AWR meetings, it is appropriate to take a conservative view of the value of the suggested incremental benefits. If 5% of the estimated spend is realised then the incremental benefits will amount to £57,500 to £117,500 per year. At 10% this rises to £115,000 to £235,000 per year.
35. When combined with the estimates in para 31 above this gives a range of benefits to the local community from the development of from between £207,000 to £565,000, rather than the figures of £4.3m to £5.8m suggested in the Study.
36. These figures will fall further, if the racecourse follows the suggestions in the Scoping Study and EAI to reduce traffic by providing a free return bus service from local stations and Edinburgh airport. Further development of restaurant and bar facilities at the racecourse will also reduce direct benefits to the town.
Costs
37. Understandably, the Scoping Study contains no financial costings for the AWT nor makes any attempt to ascribe economic values to, for example, damage to the environment, delays to traffic or difficulties caused to local residents by street parking. While the data used to estimate benefits in the study could be more specific in the context of Musselburgh, data about costs is nonexistent.
38. The EIA does not contain costings, but the reference to the need to divert the East Lothian trunk gas main and national power grid lines (EIA Annex B Summary of Environmental Issues) suggest significant construction costs which could escalate if any unforeseen problems are encountered. Similarly, although the EIA is confident that levels of soil contamination on the old gasworks site do not pose a problem, it cannot be ruled out that the levels of arsenic, chromium and lead found in the test bore holes may be higher in other areas necessitating the specialist removal of contaminated soil.
Sources
- Musselburgh Racecourse The Potential for an all-Weather Track: Stevens & Associates with RPS Planning; November 2003 Updated April 2005.
- The British Horseracing Board website
- Musselburgh Racecourse Development Environmental Impact Assessment: C-Mist
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